Robustness and evolution in climate models: some notes
Luís Estevinha Rodrigues (Federal University of Ceará)

23 May 2022, 16:00 (Lisbon Time – WET) | Sala Mattos Romão (Departamento de Filosofia)

Abstract: The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report on climate change (late 2021, early 2022) submits an even grimmer picture of the current anthropogenic global warming than its predecessor. It is unclear, however, at least to most of us, non-experts, if the models used to shape the Sixth report were improved. On closer inspection, the patterns and thresholds at work in this evaluation don’t seem to have changed much, if anything, comparatively to the previous one. It seems that climatologists and other scientists enrolled in the process of writing the Sixth report decided to just improve empirical data and keep the same models. I think the lack of substantial model improvement might be a worry for the robustness (Levins 1966) of future climate reports. In this talk, I submit some notes to illustrate the lack of climate model’s evolution. I do not wish to draw any skeptical anti-global warming stance from these notes. Nevertheless, I believe this can be fuel to support pessimistic inductions about theories of climate change and global warming.

The room has a limited number of seats. Pre-registration is required at <info@lancog.com> until a day before the event.