Alan H\u00e1jek<\/p>\n
Australian National University<\/p>\n
11 May 2018, 16:00<\/strong><\/p>\n Faculdade de Letras de Lisboa<\/strong><\/p>\n Sala Mattos Rom\u00e3o <\/strong>(Departamento de Filosofia)<\/p>\n Abstract:<\/strong> Probability theory is the dominant approach to modeling uncertainty. We begin with a set of possibilities or outcomes, usually designated \u2018\u03a9\u2019. We then assign probabilities\u2014real numbers between 0 and 1 inclusive\u2014to subsets of \u03a9. Nearly all of the action in the mathematics and philosophy of probability for over three and a half centuries has concerned the probabilities: their axiomatization, their associated theorems, and their interpretation. I want instead to put\u00a0\u03a9 in the spotlight.\u00a0\u03a9 is a set of possibilities, but which <\/em>possibilities? While the probability calculus constrains our numerical assignments, and its interpretation guides us further regarding them, we are entirely left to our own devices regarding \u03a9. What makes one\u00a0\u03a9 better than another? Its members are typically not exhaustive\u2014but which possibilities should be excluded? Its members are typically not maximally fine-grained\u2014but how refined should they be? I will discuss both philosophical and practical problems with the construction of a good \u03a9. I will offer some desirable features that a given\u00a0\u03a9 might have, and some heuristics for coming up with an\u00a0\u03a9 that has them, and for improving an\u00a0\u03a9 that we already have.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alan H\u00e1jek Australian National University \u03a9 11 May 2018, 16:00 Faculdade de Letras de Lisboa Sala Mattos Rom\u00e3o (Departamento de Filosofia) Abstract: Probability theory is the dominant approach to modeling uncertainty. We begin with a set of possibilities or outcomes, usually designated \u2018\u03a9\u2019. We then assign probabilities\u2014real numbers between 0 and 1 inclusive\u2014to subsets of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"activitypub_content_warning":"","activitypub_content_visibility":"","activitypub_max_image_attachments":4,"activitypub_interaction_policy_quote":"","activitypub_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-620","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cful.letras.ulisboa.pt\/lancog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/620","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cful.letras.ulisboa.pt\/lancog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cful.letras.ulisboa.pt\/lancog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cful.letras.ulisboa.pt\/lancog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cful.letras.ulisboa.pt\/lancog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=620"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/cful.letras.ulisboa.pt\/lancog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/620\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":621,"href":"https:\/\/cful.letras.ulisboa.pt\/lancog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/620\/revisions\/621"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cful.letras.ulisboa.pt\/lancog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=620"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cful.letras.ulisboa.pt\/lancog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=620"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cful.letras.ulisboa.pt\/lancog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=620"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}